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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 27

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(:45) 4-M.Badgley 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.90 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 27, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 37, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model