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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 68

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:51) 3-C.Wadman punts 52 yards to LAC 16, Center-42-C.Kreiter. 12-T.Benjamin ran ob at LAC 18 for 2 yards (41-I.Yiadom).

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.27 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 68, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP