Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 48

Los Angeles Chargers 22 – Denver Broncos 20

(1:58) 5-D.Jones punts 40 yards to DEN 8, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 11-R.Cracraft.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +0.76 EP
59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 48, worth -2.14 EP

KICK -0.91 EP

33% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
67% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.15 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model