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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 12

Los Angeles Chargers 19 – Denver Broncos 20

What Actually Happened

(6:51) 4-M.Badgley 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +3.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.97 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 12, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.65 EP