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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 65

Los Angeles Chargers 19 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(:58) 5-D.Jones punts 38 yards to DEN 27, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 24-A.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.95 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 65, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 23, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP