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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 67

Denver Broncos 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 19

What Actually Happened

(8:40) 3-C.Wadman punts 45 yards to LAC 22, Center-42-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.52 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.52 EP