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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 66

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:57) 3-C.Wadman punts 46 yards to LAC 20, Center-42-C.Kreiter, downed by DEN-89-B.Parker.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 66, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.19 EP