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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Denver Broncos
4th & 1 at the 16
Denver Broncos 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 6
What Actually Happened
(6:57) 30-P.Lindsay up the middle to LAC 16 for no gain (57-J.Brown; 51-K.Emanuel).
The Three Options
GO
+2.75 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.80 EP
- 36% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.97 EP
KICK
+1.33 EP
- 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
- 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT
-0.53 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
