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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 5 at the 53

Denver Broncos 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(12:58) (Punt formation) 3-C.Wadman pass short left to 32-A.Janovich pushed ob at LAC 41 for 12 yards (34-D.Watt).

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.64 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 53, worth -3.13 EP
KICK -1.94 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.91 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model