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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 85

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(:08) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to CIN 43, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 23-D.Phillips.

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.06 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 85, worth -4.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 43, worth -1.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model