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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 56

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(3:19) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to CIN 17, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at BAL 34 for 49 yards (4-S.Koch). PENALTY on CIN-42-C.Fejedelem, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 45.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +3.01 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 56, worth -2.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP