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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 63

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(1:46) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short right to 16-C.Core (29-M.Humphrey).

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.74 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 63, worth -1.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 21, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model