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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 8 at the 33

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(4:04) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Bullock 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.89 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 33, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 43, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model