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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 6

Baltimore Ravens 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 21

What Actually Happened

(8:15) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.82 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 6, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model