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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 77

Cincinnati Bengals 21 – Baltimore Ravens 21

What Actually Happened

(:15) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 38 yards to BAL 39, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 77, worth -4.45 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 34, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model