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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 55

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 14

What Actually Happened

(10:15) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to BAL 45 for no gain (57-V.Rey). Baltimore challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 09:15.)

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.59 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 55, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model