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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 10

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(1:47) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.41 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 10, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP