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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 17 at the 42

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(6:48) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 33 yards to CIN 09, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.43 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 42, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model