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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 67

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(13:02) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to BAL 25, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 27-C.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.31 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 67, worth -4.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 25, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP