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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 16 at the 44

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(4:26) 9-B.Anger punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-89-G.Sanborn, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.44 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 44, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.44 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model