4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 50

Washington Commanders 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(:27) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to TB 6, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-57-N.Sundberg.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +0.67 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 50, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.53 EP