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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 11 at the 50

Washington Commanders 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:18) 5-T.Way punts 37 yards to TB 13, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.74 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 50, worth -1.37 EP
KICK -0.34 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.37 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP