Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 63

Washington Commanders 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

(9:02) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to TB 7, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 10-A.Humphries to TB 15 for 8 yards (52-R.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.84 EP
53% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model