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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 8

Washington Commanders 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:06) 3-D.Hopkins 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.69 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +1.09 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.17 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.97 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP