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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 62

Washington Commanders 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(11:15) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to TB 4, Center-57-N.Sundberg, downed by WAS-87-J.Sprinkle.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.61 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 62, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP