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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 25

Washington Commanders 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(:24) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.45 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +3.58 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.66 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 35, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model