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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Cincinnati Bengals
4th & 1 at the 27
Cincinnati Bengals 7 – New Orleans Saints 51
What Actually Happened
(4:48) (Shotgun) 6-J.Driskel left end for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+2.58 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.16 EP
- 31% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 27, worth -1.01 EP
KICK
+1.32 EP
- 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
- 19% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 37, worth -1.70 EP
PUNT
-0.34 EP
- New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
