Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 17 at the 82

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – New Orleans Saints 45

(1:40) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to NO 41, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 80-A.Carr.

The Three Options

GO -2.75 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
69% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 82, worth -4.74 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model