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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 11

New Orleans Saints 35 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(9:08) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +3.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.22 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.87 EP