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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 7 at the 70

Cincinnati Bengals 7 – New Orleans Saints 35

What Actually Happened

(13:20) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to NO 28, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 41-A.Kamara.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.21 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 70, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 28, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model