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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 15

Tennessee Titans 14 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(2:39) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.44 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 15, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 25, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model