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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 57

New England Patriots 10 – Tennessee Titans 34

What Actually Happened

(:55) 2-B.Hoyer up the middle to NE 45 for 2 yards (97-D.Kilgo).

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.19 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 57, worth -1.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model