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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 34

New England Patriots 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(9:24) (Field Goal formation) 3-S.Gostkowski 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.00 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.25 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.97 EP
KICK +0.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model