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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 66

Tennessee Titans 27 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(13:42) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to NE 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-J.Edelman to NE 25 for 12 yards (48-B.Brinkley).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.21 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 66, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 24, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model