Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 63

Tennessee Titans 24 – New England Patriots 10

(11:58) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to NE 16, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.37 EP
58% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 63, worth -3.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model