Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 6 at the 87

New England Patriots 10 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(5:39) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 42 yards to TEN 45, Center-49-J.Cardona. 25-A.Jackson MUFFS catch, touched at TEN 45, and recovers at TEN 46. 25-A.Jackson to NE 42 for 12 yards (46-J.Develin; 53-K.Van Noy). PENALTY on NE-15-C.Hogan, Ineligible Downfield Kick, 5 yards, enforced at NE 42.

The Three Options

GO -2.51 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.41 EP
54% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 87, worth -5.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model