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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 45

Tennessee Titans 17 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(6:36) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 36 yards to NE 9, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 11-J.Edelman.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.88 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 45, worth -2.03 EP
KICK -0.66 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model