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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 67

Tennessee Titans 17 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(11:36) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to NE 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-J.Edelman pushed ob at NE 30 for 18 yards (41-B.Trawick).

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.91 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 67, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 25, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP