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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 17 at the 37

Detroit Lions 0 – Chicago Bears 6

What Actually Happened

(5:20) 6-S.Martin punts 28 yards to CHI 9, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.30 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 37, worth -2.30 EP
KICK -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model