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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 59

Chicago Bears 34 – Detroit Lions 22

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +0.58 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 59, worth -2.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 18, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model