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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 38

Detroit Lions 16 – Chicago Bears 34

What Actually Happened

(8:11) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left to 19-K.Golladay to CHI 13 for 25 yards (20-P.Amukamara).

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.17 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 38, worth -1.77 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 47, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model