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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 47

Detroit Lions 10 – Chicago Bears 34

What Actually Happened

(12:26) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass deep left intended for 13-T.Jones INTERCEPTED by 20-P.Amukamara at CHI 3. 20-P.Amukamara to CHI 3 for no gain (13-T.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.60 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 47, worth -2.45 EP
KICK -1.27 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 13, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.57 EP