Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 51

Detroit Lions 10 – Chicago Bears 34

What Actually Happened

(14:54) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 80-M.Roberts to CHI 42 for 9 yards (58-R.Smith). DET-80-M.Roberts was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. DET-33-K.Johnson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP

What Happened

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.64 EP
60% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 51, worth -2.61 EP

KICK -1.67 EP

21% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
79% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model