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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 65

Detroit Lions 10 – Chicago Bears 34

What Actually Happened

(1:14) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford scrambles up the middle to DET 40 for 5 yards (39-E.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.54 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 65, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 23, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model