Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 20 at the 75

Detroit Lions 10 – Chicago Bears 26

(6:46) 6-S.Martin punts 54 yards to CHI 21, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 39 for 18 yards (51-K.Sheppard).

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.93 EP
75% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 75, worth -4.50 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model