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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 16

Chicago Bears 26 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(8:48) 1-C.Parkey 34 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.26 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 16, worth -0.62 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model