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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 23

Chicago Bears 26 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(11:13) 1-C.Parkey 41 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +5.02 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 23, worth -0.86 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 33, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model