Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 19 at the 72

Carolina Panthers 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 52

(11:09) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 44 yards to PIT 28, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.58 EP
72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model