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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 72

Carolina Panthers 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 38

What Actually Happened

(6:14) (Punt formation) 5-M.Palardy punts 37 yards to PIT 35, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-R.Switzer.

The Three Options

GO -2.19 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.88 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 30, worth -1.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model