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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 22

Carolina Panthers 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:19) (Shotgun) 22-C.McCaffrey up the middle to PIT 20 for 2 yards (24-C.Sensabaugh, 51-J.Bostic).

The Three Options

GO +2.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.39 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model